Coalition Collapses: Atiku, Obi Split as ADC Leadership Tussle Scuttles Opposition Alliance

The ambitious plan to unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027 has suffered a major setback following the collapse of the "super coalition" formed under the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Despite the high-profile assembly of leaders including Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and Nasir El-Rufai, the alliance buckled under the weight of a protracted leadership crisis and a deadlock over the presidential ticket.

The internal friction reached a breaking point following a Supreme Court ruling on April 30, which restored the David Mark-led leadership but failed to resolve the underlying dispute with the Nafiu Bala faction. This legal vacuum, combined with Atiku and Obi's inability to agree on zoning—with Obi's camp vowing to avoid "dollarized" primaries—has led to a mass exodus of key figures. On Sunday, May 3, 2026, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso officially dumped the ADC, picking up membership cards for the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC).

Observers suggest that the fragmentation of the opposition plays directly into the hands of the incumbent administration. A divided opposition vote, similar to the 2023 scenario, appears increasingly likely for 2027.

"President Tinubu is not afraid of Atiku or Obi individually, but he is afraid of them coming together," claimed ADC chieftain Dr. Shiminenge Damna. "The divided vote that gave Tinubu victory in 2023 is what they’re about to repeat in 2027."

With the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) deadline approaching, insiders predict more resignations from the ADC in the coming week. The collapse is a significant turning point, leaving the opposition scattered across multiple parties while the APC continues its 2027 mobilization.

Do you believe the move by Obi and Kwankwaso to the NDC can still challenge the APC, or has the opposition effectively handed Tinubu a second term by splitting? Share your comments below!

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