India's Fertility Rate Declines Below Replacement Level, Signaling Demographic Shift

India's total fertility rate (TFR) has been steadily declining over recent years, reaching approximately 2.1 children per woman in 2025—a 0.8% decrease from 2024 . This rate aligns with the replacement level, the threshold at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next.

Projections indicate a continued downward trend, with the TFR expected to fall to 1.29 by 2050 and potentially to 1.04 by 2100 . Such a decline suggests that, without offsetting factors like immigration, India's population growth may slow and eventually reverse, leading to a shrinking and aging population.

The decline in fertility rates varies across regions. Southern states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu report TFRs well below the national average, while states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh maintain higher rates . This regional disparity reflects differences in socio-economic development, education levels, and access to healthcare services.

Several factors contribute to the national decline in fertility rates, including increased female education, urbanization, delayed marriages, and improved access to family planning resources . While these developments signify progress in many areas, they also present challenges, such as potential labor shortages and increased pressure on social support systems for the elderly.

Policymakers are now tasked with addressing these demographic changes by implementing strategies that support family growth, such as enhancing childcare services, promoting work-life balance, and ensuring economic stability, to maintain a balanced and sustainable population structure.

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